Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ceará U20 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Goiás U20 2-1 Ceará U20
Original prediction
Ceará U20
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.4% | 35.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.7% | 24.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.0% | 39.5% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Ceará U20
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Ceará U20 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Goiás U20LWWLL
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Ceará U20WWWDD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Goiás U20Ceará U20
77.8Attack66.7
33.3Defence77.8
66.7Form100.0
61.0Power85.2
1.90xG2.17