Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Goiânia 0-0 Morrinhos, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Goiânia 2-1 Morrinhos
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.7% | 32.6% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.8% | 33.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.5% | 34.2% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Projected Score
Goiânia 0–0 Morrinhos
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
34.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GoiâniaDLLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MorrinhosDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GoiâniaMorrinhos
23.1Attack48.7
71.8Defence56.4
38.5Form48.7
47.4Power53.4
0.65xG0.77