Serie BSerie B
Saturday, 4 July 2026Last updated 10:03
Goias

Goias

Home
DW
20
Full time
Ceara

Ceara

Away
DDL
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Goias(33%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Goias
Win probability
Goias
33%
Draw
29%
Ceara
38%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Goias
73
Ceara
14
Defence
Goias
66
Ceara
66
Momentum
Goias
67
Ceara
22
Danger (xG)
Goias
1.34
Ceara
0.22
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Goias)
1.34
avg per match
xG for (Ceara)
0.22
avg per match
xG against (Goias)
0.88
avg per match
xG against (Ceara)
1.03
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
GoiasGoias
DWWLL
CearaCeara
DDLLL

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Goias33%
Draw29%
Ceara38%

Ceara leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Goias head into this in Serie B fixture in mixed form (DW), while Ceara arrive in mixed form (DDL). Goias have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Ceara over 3 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Goias (66/100) and Ceara (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Goias have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home. Ceara have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

Goias have generated 0.89 xG per game recently while conceding 1.75 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Ceara have generated 0.67 xG per game recently while conceding 1.30 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

Goias have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Goias to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Goias 3273%, Draw 2920%, Ceara 3807%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Goias 1Draws 00 Ceara
Avg goals: 2.0
5 Jul 2026
Goias
W20
Ceara

Recent form

Goias

Goias

D
@ CRB
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.9
W
vs Ceara
5 Jul 2026
20
W
@ Nautico Recife
28 Jun 2026
10
L
vs Operario-PR
21 Jun 2026
03
L
@ Cruzeiro
13 May 2026
01
Ceara

Ceara

D
@ America Mineiro
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Athletic Club
14 Jul 2026
00
L
@ Goias
5 Jul 2026
02
L
@ Juventude
28 Jun 2026
02
L
vs Botafogo SP
20 Jun 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Goias vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts Goias to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Goias vs Ceara?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Goias vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more