Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GOES · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GOES 2-6 FC Lisse
Original prediction
GOES
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.05 | 22.1% | 40.5% | 18.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.1% | 25.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 54.8% | 34.0% | -20.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
GOES
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
GOES has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GOESLLWWW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FC LisseWWDLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GOESFC Lisse
100.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
97.0Power45.3
1.92xG1.11