Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gobelins 0-0 Bastia, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gobelins 1-0 Bastia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.2% | 36.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 32.2% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.2% | 31.6% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
Gobelins 0–0 Bastia
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.2%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GobelinsDLDDW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
BastiaDWLWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GobelinsBastia
23.8Attack28.6
66.7Defence57.1
42.9Form47.6
47.4Power47.5
0.86xG0.68