Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Qadsia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Goa 1-2 Al Qadsia
Original prediction
Al Qadsia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.62 | 19.8% | 29.0% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.2% | 26.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 56.0% | 44.8% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Al Qadsia
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Al Qadsia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GoaWLDLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al QadsiaWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
GoaAl Qadsia
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
53.0Power89.7
1.29xG1.61