Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gnistan 1-1 Turku PS
Original prediction
Gnistan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.2% | 44.3% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.8% | 25.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 27.1% | 30.0% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GnistanWWDLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Turku PSDWDWL
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GnistanTurku PS
55.6Attack42.9
55.6Defence65.1
55.6Form47.6
56.1Power53.2
1.26xG1.03