Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Gnistan are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while SJK are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Gnistan hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 42.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.5% in the Veikkausliiga, while Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
12.5%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80