Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KuPS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gnistan 1-1 KuPS
Original prediction
KuPS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 26.3% | 30.7% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.6% | 24.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 48.1% | 44.5% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
KuPS
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
KuPS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GnistanDWWDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KuPSLWLDW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GnistanKuPS
54.5Attack57.6
56.1Defence65.2
54.5Form65.2
55.6Power64.0
1.20xG1.42