Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Gnistan are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lahti are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 53.4 against 52.7. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.7% in the Veikkausliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.4%
Model confidence
17.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00