Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gnistan 3-4 AC Oulu
Original prediction
Gnistan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.8% | 40.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.8% | 29.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.4% | 29.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GnistanLLDDW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AC OuluWLWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GnistanAC Oulu
47.6Attack38.1
56.0Defence59.5
50.0Form47.6
52.1Power50.3
1.25xG0.92