Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Génesis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Génesis 0-0 Olancho, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Génesis 0-0 Olancho
Original prediction
Génesis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.3% | 41.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.1% | 30.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.5% | 27.3% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Projected Score
Génesis 0–0 Olancho
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Génesis
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Génesis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GénesisLWLDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OlanchoDDLDW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
GénesisOlancho
47.6Attack28.6
71.4Defence76.2
47.6Form47.6
55.0Power54.0
0.98xG0.64