Génesisvs
CD Marathon
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 8/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Génesis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Génesis 1-2 CD Marathon
Original prediction
Génesis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.4% | 38.1% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.1% | 29.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.5% | 32.5% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Génesis
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Génesis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GénesisDWLWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CD MarathonWDLWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
GénesisCD Marathon
50.0Attack33.3
75.0Defence83.3
58.3Form66.7
60.7Power64.8
1.18xG0.89