Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Os · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (8%), 2-4 (7%), 1-5 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gneist 2-4 Os
Original prediction
Os
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.11 | 11.2% | 13.1% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.99 | 12.9% | 12.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.19 | 75.9% | 74.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–48%
- 2.2–47%
- 3.1–57%
Predicted outcome
Os
Probability
74.7%
Model confidence
74.7%
Os has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GneistLLLLD
GF 7 · GA 18 · avg 1.40/3.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
OsWWDLW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GneistOs
56.5Attack100.0
0.0Defence44.4
21.7Form76.4
29.3Power71.5
1.91xG4.50