Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Djerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-4 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gneist 0-5 Djerv
Original prediction
Djerv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.54 | 16.3% | 19.6% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.08 | 17.8% | 19.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.9% | 61.2% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–48%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–47%
Predicted outcome
Djerv
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Djerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GneistLDWDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DjervWWWLW
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
GneistDjerv
44.4Attack91.0
0.0Defence44.9
11.1Form65.4
22.2Power66.2
1.83xG4.26