Gloucester Cityvs
Plymouth Parkway
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth Parkway · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gloucester City 1-1 Plymouth Parkway
Original prediction
Plymouth Parkway
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.4% | 18.6% | -23.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 17.2% | -8.4 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 32.0% | 64.2% | 32.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
32.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–310%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth Parkway
Probability
64.2%
Model confidence
64.2%
Plymouth Parkway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00