Gloucester Cityvs
Basingstoke Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gloucester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gloucester City 1-1 Basingstoke Town
Original prediction
Gloucester City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.8% | 41.6% | -19.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.5% | 26.4% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 18.7% | 32.0% | 13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Gloucester City
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Gloucester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20