Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gloggnitz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gloggnitz 1-3 SV Horn
Original prediction
Gloggnitz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.3% | 37.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.5% | 26.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.2% | 35.9% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Gloggnitz
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Gloggnitz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GloggnitzDLDLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SV HornLLWDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GloggnitzSV Horn
47.6Attack33.3
42.9Defence66.7
38.1Form38.1
44.4Power47.2
1.21xG1.19