Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oberwart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gloggnitz 1-1 Oberwart
Original prediction
Oberwart
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 28.8% | 16.8% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.4% | 17.7% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 46.8% | 65.5% | 18.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Oberwart
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
65.5%
Oberwart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GloggnitzDWLLD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OberwartDWWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GloggnitzOberwart
40.0Attack70.0
36.7Defence56.7
36.7Form70.0
39.9Power66.1
1.04xG2.66