Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Glentoran · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Glentoran 1-1 Bangor
Original prediction
Glentoran
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 76.8% | 64.2% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.02 | 15.1% | 20.1% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 11.19 | 8.1% | 15.7% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Glentoran
Probability
64.2%
Model confidence
64.2%
Glentoran has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GlentoranLLWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BangorLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
GlentoranBangor
46.7Attack13.3
60.0Defence20.0
40.0Form6.7
49.7Power18.2
2.16xG0.84