Glenavon FCvs
H&W Welders
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Glenavon FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Glenavon FC 4-0 H&W Welders
Original prediction
Glenavon FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.8% | 51.1% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 23.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.5% | 25.2% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Glenavon FC
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Glenavon FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40