Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gjilani · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gjilani 2-2 Dukagjini
Original prediction
Gjilani
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.2% | 45.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.2% | 27.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 28.6% | 27.1% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Gjilani
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Gjilani has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GjilaniWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DukagjiniWDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GjilaniDukagjini
83.3Attack16.7
83.3Defence100.0
100.0Form66.7
91.7Power64.8
1.64xG0.96