Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballkani · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gjilani 1-0 Ballkani
Original prediction
Ballkani
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.03 | 29.7% | 35.6% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 26.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.4% | 37.8% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ballkani
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Ballkani has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GjilaniLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BallkaniWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GjilaniBallkani
66.7Attack66.7
50.0Defence58.3
58.3Form75.0
59.2Power68.0
1.50xG1.46