Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Foggia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Giugliano 3-1 Foggia
Original prediction
Foggia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 27.7% | 26.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.7% | 26.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.6% | 47.0% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Foggia
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Foggia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GiuglianoLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
FoggiaLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GiuglianoFoggia
37.5Attack33.3
20.8Defence63.0
25.0Form40.7
30.1Power47.5
0.91xG1.39