Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Giugliano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Giugliano 5-2 Cosenza
Original prediction
Giugliano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.7% | 43.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.8% | 29.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Giugliano
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Giugliano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GiuglianoLLLDD
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CosenzaDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GiuglianoCosenza
38.6Attack0.0
58.8Defence0.0
46.5Form0.0
49.8Power7.0
1.37xG0.88