Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Giugliano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Giugliano 1-0 Barletta
Original prediction
Giugliano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.47 | 37.0% | 38.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 29.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.7% | 31.6% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Giugliano
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Giugliano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GiuglianoLWLLL
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BarlettaLDDLD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GiuglianoBarletta
38.6Attack33.3
58.8Defence0.0
46.5Form0.0
49.8Power15.3
1.37xG0.92