Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona 0-0 Mallorca
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 38.4% | 39.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 30.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 32.6% | 30.9% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GironaWWLWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MallorcaLWWDW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
GironaMallorca
66.7Attack38.1
61.9Defence85.7
61.9Form61.9
64.0Power62.4
1.22xG0.89