Gironavs
Celta de Vigo II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/24/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona 5-1 Celta de Vigo II
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 69.2% | 57.9% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.01 | 18.6% | 23.1% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 7.58 | 12.3% | 19.0% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GironaWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Celta de Vigo IIDWLDL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
GironaCelta de Vigo II
56.7Attack50.0
70.0Defence46.7
60.0Form40.0
63.0Power46.2
2.04xG0.78