Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona 1-2 Castellón
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.4% | 35.9% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.7% | 29.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.9% | 34.8% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GironaWWLDD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CastellónWWDWL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GironaCastellón
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power80.3
1.23xG1.37