Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona 2-0 Albacete
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 62.4% | 57.4% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.7% | 23.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.83 | 15.9% | 19.1% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GironaWLWWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlbaceteLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GironaAlbacete
66.7Attack22.2
55.6Defence44.4
55.6Form5.6
59.8Power27.7
2.13xG0.74