Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona II 3-1 Tudelano
Original prediction
Girona II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.6% | 38.2% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.1% | 28.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.3% | 33.1% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Girona II
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Girona II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Girona IILLWLW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TudelanoDWLDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Girona IITudelano
100.0Attack0.0
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form33.3
32.0Power45.3
1.33xG1.26