Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Girona II 3-0 Náxara
Original prediction
Girona II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.1% | 58.8% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 20.0% | 22.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 8.31 | 10.9% | 18.6% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Girona II
Probability
58.8%
Model confidence
58.8%
Girona II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Girona IILWLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NáxaraDWDLL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Girona IINáxara
61.9Attack16.7
42.9Defence50.0
47.6Form27.8
53.0Power33.9
1.85xG0.91