Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vestri · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Ægir are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Vestri are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Vestri hold a 20.3-point power-rating edge (24.2 v 44.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.2% in the 1. Deild, while Vestri holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vestri
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
8.2%
Vestri has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40