1. Deild1. Deild
Tuesday, 28 July 2026Last updated 12:33
Ægir

Ægir

Home
L
01
Full time
Njardvik

Njardvik

Away
LWW
GeoSalmo vollurinn
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
Njardvik(45%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Ægir
30%
Draw
25%
Njardvik
45%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ægir
73
Njardvik
83
Defence
Ægir
1
Njardvik
11
Momentum
Ægir
0
Njardvik
67
Danger (xG)
Ægir
1.80
Njardvik
2.10
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.59 xG for Ægir and 1.96 xG for Njardvik — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.36), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Ægir's Attack Score (73) exceeds Njardvik's Defensive Stability (11), and Njardvik's attack (83) similarly tests Ægir's defence (1). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.55 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Ægir's Attack Score (73) vs Njardvik's Defensive Stability (11) and Njardvik's attack (83) vs Ægir's defence (1) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Ægir)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Njardvik)
2.10
avg per match
xG against (Ægir)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Njardvik)
2.40
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
ÆgirÆgir
LLDLW
NjardvikNjardvik
LWWLL

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
Ægir30%
Draw25%
Njardvik45%

Njardvik leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Njardvik Favoured — Model Projects 1-2

Ægir host Njardvik in 1. Deild. Ægir have recorded LDLLLL in recent matches while Njardvik arrive with a run of WLWWLW. These sides have met 7 times recently, averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.96 expected goals for Njardvik against 1.59 for Ægir — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 📈 Recent Form Njardvik arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (WLWWLW) against Ægir's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Njardvik have won 4 of the last 7 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Njardvik enter this fixture with a significantly stronger Momentum Score (67 vs 0). Momentum captures the trajectory of recent performances — not just results, but the underlying quality of those performances. Njardvik are trending upward while Ægir have been less consistent, and that gap is the primary driver of this projection.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Njardvik are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Njardvik have been conceding 2.08 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 7 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.36 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.

Recent form

Ægir

Ægir

L
vs Fylkir
3 Jul 2026
24
L
@ Afturelding
29 Jun 2026
18
D
@ Grindavik
26 Jun 2026
00
L
vs Vestri
17 May 2026
12
W
@ KA Akureyri
14 May 2026
21
Njardvik

Njardvik

L
@ Fylkir
17 Jul 2026
14
W
vs Grindavik
10 Jul 2026
54
W
vs Throttur Reykjavik
3 Jul 2026
10
L
@ Afturelding
26 Jun 2026
02
L
@ Afturelding
13 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ægir vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts Njardvik to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ægir vs Njardvik?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Ægir vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ægir vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more