Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grindavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ægir 1-1 Grindavik
Original prediction
Grindavik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.86 | 13.3% | 20.7% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.06 | 15.1% | 19.9% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.28 | 71.6% | 59.4% | -12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Grindavik
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Grindavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÆgirLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 25 · avg 1.00/5.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GrindavikWLDWL
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ÆgirGrindavik
38.9Attack35.2
11.1Defence53.7
14.8Form37.0
24.2Power44.5
1.12xG1.85