Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gimnastic 2-0 Zaragoza
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.0% | 33.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 30.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 37.0% | 35.9% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.4%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GimnasticLDDDL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZaragozaLWWWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GimnasticZaragoza
35.1Attack50.0
57.0Defence50.0
41.2Form50.0
46.6Power50.0
0.97xG1.04