Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gimnastic 0-0 Hércules, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gimnastic 4-2 Hércules
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 34.8% | 34.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.1% | 31.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.2% | 34.0% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
Gimnastic 0–0 Hércules
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.6%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GimnasticWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HérculesLWDWW
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
GimnasticHércules
45.8Attack23.8
50.0Defence76.2
45.8Form61.9
48.9Power57.1
0.87xG0.85