Gimnasticvs
Atlético Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Madrid II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gimnastic 2-1 Atlético Madrid II
Original prediction
Atlético Madrid II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.2% | 33.8% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.7% | 24.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 36.1% | 42.1% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Madrid II
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Atlético Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00