Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Gimnastic are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Arenteiro are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (WDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Gimnastic hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (60.5 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.3% in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.33/1.00
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.67