Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gimnastic 0-0 Algeciras, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gimnastic 4-2 Algeciras
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.2% | 36.1% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.0% | 30.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.8% | 33.0% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Gimnastic 0–0 Algeciras
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GimnasticDWLDD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlgecirasLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GimnasticAlgeciras
35.1Attack35.1
57.0Defence64.0
41.2Form48.2
46.6Power50.7
0.80xG0.84