Gimnasia L.P.vs
Sarmiento Junin
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 10/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gimnasia L.P. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 Sarmiento Junin
Original prediction
Gimnasia L.P.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.1% | 48.8% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.1% | 26.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.57 | 16.8% | 25.1% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Gimnasia L.P.
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Gimnasia L.P. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40