GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Gillingham are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Peterborough are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 48.0-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 81.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 71.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

71.6%

Model confidence

71.6%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

GillinghamWDWLW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PeterboroughLWWLL

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GillinghamPeterborough
33.3Attack75.0
22.2Defence79.2
33.3Form87.5
33.1Power81.1
0.92xG2.75
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