GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/7/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fulham U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Gillingham are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Fulham U21 are 0W-3D-0L in their last 3 (DDD), averaging 2.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fulham U21 hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Fulham U21 holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fulham U21

Probability

42.9%

Model confidence

42.9%

Fulham U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

GillinghamLWLLL

GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Fulham U21DDD

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 2.67/2.67

BTTS 3/3O2.5 3/3
GillinghamFulham U21
33.3Attack66.7
22.2Defence33.3
33.3Form41.7
33.1Power50.3
1.75xG2.07
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