Gibraltarvs
Sao Tome and Principe
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gibraltar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gibraltar 0-0 Sao Tome and Principe
Original prediction
Gibraltar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 65.3% | 39.7% | -25.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.50 | 20.9% | 26.3% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 6.82 | 13.8% | 33.9% | 20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Gibraltar
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Gibraltar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60