Ghaz Al Shamalvs
Newroz
COMPLETEDIraq · Iraqi League · 9/19/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newroz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ghaz Al Shamal 0-0 Newroz, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ghaz Al Shamal 0-0 Newroz
Original prediction
Newroz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 27.6% | 26.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 29.9% | 33.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.5% | 40.4% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Projected Score
Ghaz Al Shamal 0–0 Newroz
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
Newroz
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Newroz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ghaz Al ShamalDDLWD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
NewrozWWWDL
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Ghaz Al ShamalNewroz
19.0Attack47.6
76.2Defence76.2
33.3Form52.4
45.9Power58.9
0.56xG0.80