Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naft · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gharraf 0-1 Naft, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gharraf 0-0 Naft
Original prediction
Naft
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 29.0% | 18.9% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.7% | 30.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.3% | 50.5% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Projected Score
Gharraf 0–1 Naft
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Naft
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Naft has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GharrafWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaftWWWWL
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
GharrafNaft
20.0Attack43.3
56.7Defence83.3
30.0Form70.0
38.6Power66.5
0.34xG1.12