Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ghana · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ghana 2-4 Gambia
Original prediction
Ghana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.7% | 39.6% | -27.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.0% | 26.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 8.14 | 11.2% | 33.5% | 22.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Ghana
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Ghana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GhanaLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GambiaWLLDD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
GhanaGambia
0.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power80.3
1.07xG1.46