Geumsan Insamvs
Pyeongtaek Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K4 League · 9/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Geumsan Insam · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Geumsan Insam 0-0 Pyeongtaek Citizen
Original prediction
Geumsan Insam
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 55.8% | 77.5% | 21.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.3% | 13.6% | -9.7 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 20.9% | 8.9% | -12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Geumsan Insam
Probability
77.5%
Model confidence
77.5%
Geumsan Insam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80