Geumsan Insamvs
Jinju Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K4 League · 8/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jinju Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Geumsan Insam 1-1 Jinju Citizen
Original prediction
Jinju Citizen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 27.4% | 20.6% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 26.9% | 22.0% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 45.7% | 57.4% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Jinju Citizen
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Jinju Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00