Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Getafe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Getafe 1-0 Malaga
Original prediction
Getafe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 47.6% | 47.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 30.2% | 28.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 22.2% | 24.4% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Getafe
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Getafe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GetafeLDDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
MalagaLDDLD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GetafeMalaga
16.7Attack16.7
61.1Defence38.9
27.8Form16.7
38.1Power27.6
1.30xG0.79